A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
